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Reducing GHG: time for a propulsion revolution

Ambitious IMO targets to cut GHG emissions by 2050 will require a fourth revolution in shipping propulsion, based on new fuels and technology

ICS is making proactive proposals to achieve the ambitious goals agreed by the UN IMO to phase out GHG emissions. Including a total cut by the shipping industry of all emissions by 2050.

In the two centuries international shipping has transitioned from sail to steam, and from coal to oil propulsion. As a result of the need to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from ships, the industry is now on the brink of a ‘Fourth Propulsion Revolution’, possibly using a combination of hydrogen/ammonia and batteries powered from renewable energy sources.

ICS and its member national associations are committed to the phase-out of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with the Initial Strategy on the Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships adopted by IMO in April 2018, but which is scheduled to be revised upwards in 2023.

An ambitious target: net zero CO2 emissions by 2050

The current IMO strategy already establish very ambitious targets, including the phase-out of GHG emissions “as soon as possible this century” and reducing annual GHG emissions from international shipping by 2050.

However, at the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow, ICS committed the global industry to a net zero target for 2050, but with the firm understanding that this will only be plausible if IMO Member States take the urgent steps required to make this possible within a global regulatory framework.

These urgent steps include the immediate approval of a US$5 billion IMO Maritime Research Fund (IMRF) to accelerate the development of zero-carbon technologies and fuels, and the rapid application, via IMO regulation, of a global carbon price to international shipping to close the price cap between conventional and zero-carbon fuels and to raise the enormous funds needed to expedite a fair and equitable transition in which developing countries will not be left behind.

In March 2022, in co-operation with governments, ICS submitted a revised version of the R&D Fund proposal to IMO which is it hoped will be approved  by the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in June 2022.  ICS has also come forward with a detailed proposal to IMO to demonstrate how a global levy on CO2 emissions could be readily implemented by IMO. To facilitate consensus among governments, including that those that have legitimate concerns about the impacts on trade, ICS has also submitted ideas on how the current IMO GHG reduction strategy might be revised to incorporate a net zero emission target for 2050.

Following the ‘Code Red’ report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in August 2021, which stressed that time is rapidly running out to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees centigrade, the first task for IMO Member States is to recognise that the scale of challenge involved in decarbonising shipping and the urgent need for action are truly difficult to exaggerate.

In June 2021, with much supportive input from ICS, IMO adopted a package of mandatory technical and operational measures that will help to ensure that the existing global fleet will reduce its carbon intensity by at least 40% by 2030 (compared to 2008). But the challenge of decarbonising the sector completely – what ICS has dubbed the Fourth Propulsion Revolution – is of a completely different order, especially as demand for maritime trade is projected to continue growing as the world’s population and its expectations of higher living standards continue to increase.

The complete decarbonisation of shipping will only be possible with the use of zero-carbon technologies and fuels such as hydrogen, ammonia and electricity produced from renewable energy sources. But these don’t yet exist in scale or form that are ready for immediate application to global shipping, especially large ocean going ships on intercontinental voyages, whilst the cost of these new zero-carbon fuels is likely to be prohibitively expensive unless the price gap between conventional and alternative fuels can be closed via the application of a market-based measure (MBM) implemented globally by IMO.

ICS is confident that the radical solutions required will eventually be found. However, the technologies necessary to achieve these ambitious IMO goals do not currently exist at a scale or in a form which is commercially viable for widespread use by international shipping, especially for transoceanic voyages. ICS therefore believes that support for massive research and development activity needs to be at the centre of the implementation of the IMO strategy by Member States.

Even a total cut by 2050, regardless of trade growth, is very challenging indeed, let alone any more ambitious target that might be agreed by IMO in 2023. The industry also has to deliver a 40% efficiency improvement by 2030, although ICS is confident that this earlier goal can be achieved using existing technologies.

ICS is making proactive proposals to achieve the ambitious goals agreed by the UN IMO to phase out GHG emissions. Including a total cut by the shipping industry of all GHG emissions by 2050.

In the two centuries international shipping has transitioned from sail to steam, and from coal to oil propulsion. As a result of the need to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions from ships, the industry is now on the brink of a ‘Fourth Propulsion Revolution’, possibly using a combination of hydrogen/ammonia and batteries powered from renewable energy sources.

ICS and its member national associations are committed to the phase-out of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in line with the Initial Strategy on the Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships adopted by IMO in April 2018, but which is scheduled to be revised upwards in 2023.

An ambitious target: net zero CO2 emissions by 2050

The current IMO strategy already establish very ambitious targets, including the phase-out of GHG emissions “as soon as possible this century” and reducing all annual GHG emissions from international shipping by 2050 compared.

However, at the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow, ICS committed the global industry to a net zero target for 2050, but with the firm understanding that this will only be plausible if IMO Member States take the urgent steps required to make this possible within a global regulatory framework.

These urgent steps include the immediate approval of a US$5 billion IMO Maritime Research Fund (IMRF) to accelerate the development of zero-carbon technologies and fuels, and the rapid application, via IMO regulation, of a global carbon price to international shipping to close the price cap between conventional and zero-carbon fuels and to raise the enormous funds needed to expedite a fair and equitable transition in which developing countries will not be left behind.

In March 2022, in co-operation with governments, ICS submitted a revised version of the R&D Fund proposal to IMO which is it hoped will be approved  by the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) in June 2022.  ICS has also come forward with a detailed proposal to IMO to demonstrate how a global levy on CO2 emissions could be readily implemented by IMO. To facilitate consensus among governments, including that those that have legitimate concerns about the impacts on trade, ICS has also submitted ideas on how the current IMO GHG reduction strategy might be revised to incorporate a net zero emission target for 2050.

Following the ‘Code Red’ report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in August 2021, which stressed that time is rapidly running out to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees centigrade, the first task for IMO Member States is to recognise that the scale of challenge involved in decarbonising shipping and the urgent need for action are truly difficult to exaggerate.

In June 2021, with much supportive input from ICS, IMO adopted a package of mandatory technical and operational measures that will help to ensure that the existing global fleet will reduce its carbon intensity by at least 40% by 2030 (compared to 2008). But the challenge of decarbonising the sector completely – what ICS has dubbed the Fourth Propulsion Revolution – is of a completely different order, especially as demand for maritime trade is projected to continue growing as the world’s population and its expectations of higher living standards continue to increase.

The complete decarbonisation of shipping will only be possible with the use of zero-carbon technologies and fuels such as hydrogen, ammonia and electricity produced from renewable energy sources. But these don’t yet exist in scale or form that are ready for immediate application to global shipping, especially large ocean going ships on intercontinental voyages, whilst the cost of these new zero-carbon fuels is likely to be prohibitively expensive unless the price gap between conventional and alternative fuels can be closed via the application of a market-based measure (MBM) implemented globally by IMO.

ICS is confident that the radical solutions required will eventually be found. However, the technologies necessary to achieve these ambitious IMO goals do not currently exist at a scale or in a form which is commercially viable for widespread use by international shipping, especially for transoceanic voyages. ICS therefore believes that support for massive research and development activity needs to be at the centre of the implementation of the IMO strategy by Member States.

Even a total cut by 2050, regardless of trade growth, is very challenging indeed, let alone any more ambitious target that might be agreed by IMO in 2023. The industry also has to a deliver 30% efficiency improvement by 2030, although ICS is confident that this earlier goal can be achieved using existing technologies.